Guidelines for the Production of Ensemble Forecast Basic Products of T/BMS 02-2022

Scope

Main technical content: This standard applies to the application of ensemble numerical forecast products and the extraction of forecast information. Among them, various types of ensemble information presentation methods, such as stamp charts, noodle charts, ensemble averages, ensemble dispersions, ensemble modes, and grade probabilities, can be applied to temperature, precipitation, wind speed, geopotential height of isobars, total cloud cover, and other variables or elements directly output or processed by various models. The selection of different variable types needs to be based on actual application requirements and prioritized accordingly. This standard also provides processing methods for two types of forecast variables output by numerical models: cumulative and transient states. The calculation methods for different types of products in this standard are based on the situation where multiple ensemble members exist at a single time and space reference point. In practical applications, it is necessary to consider the expansion in both time and space domains. The main purpose of this standard is to provide application norms and guidance for data based on ensemble forecast sources. Therefore, on the one hand, it is necessary to consider whether it is possible to extract the complete forecast information reflected by the ensemble forecast system from different perspectives, that is, to ensure that the representational significance of the basic ensemble forecast products is clear; on the other hand, it is necessary to maintain consistency with the descriptions of products in the WMO and European Center user manuals, that is, to ensure that the calculation methods are reasonable. The calculation methods are based on ensemble members as control samples, so it is easy to extend them to spatial ranges and different forecast durations and effectiveness in practical applications. Examples are also given in the standard appendix, which can be used as references in applica

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